Modeling 2025 NCAA Basketball Results

Tree Model

145 college basketball spreads (all underdogs) taken from January 2025 - April 2025 were modeled to see if we can increase our chances at hitting a bet against the spread (ATS).

• The true win rate was 56% across all bets taken in NCAAB ATS.

• Take the Road Dog - the model implies a 61% win rate on all bets taken for teams on the road in the 2025 season (97 total bets).

• When to take the Home Dog - If a team has 6 or less points at home, the model is indicating a strong win percentage at 67% (21 total bets).

• When to Avoid the Underdog - If a team has more than 6 points at home, it only hit at 32% (27 total bets).